Uncovering Publication Bias in Fiscal Multiplier Estimates
Hlaváček, Michal; Ismayilov, Ilgar
Year: 2024 Volume: 74 Issue: 4 Pages: 392-431
Abstract: Our study provides an integrated overview of fiscal multiplier estimates, a key parameter assessing the economy’s response to government interventions. Using a comprehensive database comprising 131 studies and over 3200 observations, we employ both linear and non- linear meta-analysis methods. Notably, our study marks the first application of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in the context of meta-analysis for fiscal multipliers. Our results reveal a positive but moderate fiscal multiplier effect, ranging from 0.75 to 0.83 across different models. Significantly, our findings diverge from prior research by identifying a publication selection bias, largely attributed to our innovative use of BMA for heterogeneity investigation.
JEL classification: E62, C83
Keywords: fiscal multiplier, meta-analysis, publication bias, model uncertainty
DOI: https://doi.org/10.32065/CJEF.2024.04.02
RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v74y2024i4p392-431.html
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