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Volume 53, Issue 11 -12

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Fiscal Implications of Population Ageing

Bezděk, Vladimír; Dybzcak, Kamil; Krejdl, Aleš

Year: 2003   Volume: 53   Issue: 11 -12   Pages: 562-591

Abstract: The paper explores the long-term fiscal implications of population aging in the Czech Republic. The results, although bearing a significant margin of uncertainty due to the very long-term character of the projection exercise, do not impart encouraging fiscal outlooks for the Czech Republic. This is hardly surprising given that the Czech Republic is facing pronounced population ageing. Moreover, the fiscal position of the Czech Republic is presently very poor, in spite of its (still) low level of debt and debt interest payments. The Czech Republic?s high primary deficit will foster a rapid rise in debt irrespective of population ageing. Therefore, to cope with the expected fiscal pressures, it is necessary not only to overhaul the pension and health-care systems in the medium term, but also to immediately start an intensive strategy of consolidation aimed at significantly reducing the high primary deficit.

JEL classification: E62, H11, H5, H6, H81

Keywords: ageing populations; fiscal policy; fiscal sustainability

RePEc: n/a

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