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Volume 66, Issue 6

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The Russian Stock Market during the Ukrainian Crisis: A Network Perspective

Erkol, Narod; Rösch, Angi; Schmidbauer, Harald; Uluceviz, Erhan

Year: 2016   Volume: 66   Issue: 6   Pages: 478-509

Abstract: The goal of the this paper is to investigate the shock spillover characteristics of the Russian stock market during different rounds of sanctions imposed as a reaction to Russia’s alleged role in the Ukrainian crisis. We consider six stock markets, represented by their respective stock indices, namely the US (DJIA), the UK (FTSE), the euro area (Euro Stoxx 50), Japan (Nikkei 225), China (SSE Composite) and Russia (RTS). Linking these markets together in a network on the basis of vector autoregressive processes, we can measure, among other things: (i) direct daily return and volatility spillovers from RTS to other market indices, (ii) daily propagation values quantifying the relative importance of the Russian stock market as a return or volatility shock propagator, and (iii) the amount of network repercussions after a shock. The last two are methodological innovations in this context. It turns out that distinct spillover patterns exist in different rounds of sanctions. Large-scale sanctions, beginning in July 2014, rendered the consequences of shocks from Russia less predictable. While these sanctions reduced the importance of the Russian stock market as a propagator of return shocks, they also increased its importance as a propagator of volatility shocks, thus making the network more vulnerable with respect to volatility shocks from the Russian stock market. This is a form of backlash that the sanctioning economies have been facing.

JEL classification: C32, C58, F51, G15

Keywords: “Systemic five”, Russian stock market, Ukrainian crisis, sanctions, return spillovers, volatility spillovers, network dynamics, propagation value

RePEc: http://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v66y2016i6p478-509.html

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