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Volume 60, Issue 1

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Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries

Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, Tigran

Year: 2010   Volume: 60   Issue: 1   Pages: 22-39

Abstract: We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several Central European (CE) economies. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange market and observable country-specific macroeconomic factors is modeled using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach and a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model. We find that real factors seem to lack significance in determining foreign exchange risk, while nominal factors (inflation and money) have a significant impact. The differences in the impact of nominal factors are related to the actual monetary policy regimes adopted in the countries examined. Our findings have policy implications with respect to currency stability. The central banks in the CE countries should continue stabilization policies aimed at achieving nominal convergence with the core EU members, as nominal country-specific factors play a crucial role in explaining the variability of the risk premium.

JEL classification: C22, F31, G15, P59

Keywords: foreign exchange risk, time-varying risk premium, stochastic discount factor,

RePEc: http://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v60y2010i1p22-39.html

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