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Volume 52, Issue 11

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Odhad rovnovážných reálných kurzů pro pět ekonomik přistupujících EU

Barrel, Ray; Holland, Dawn; Šmídková, Kateřina

Year: 2002   Volume: 52   Issue: 11   Pages: 666-668

Abstract: We compute fundamental real exchange rates for five pre-EU-accession countries. Our model captures the respective impact of FDI on trade balances, and defines external balance in terms of a debt-to-GDP ratio. Our model is calibrated according to our previous econometric research, and we run an extensive set of sensitivity tests. The results show a general tendency toward appreciation that is in line with economic fundamentals. This projected trend decelerates around the year 2005. Our results also indicate important differences among individual countries that are relevant to discussions of exchange-rate policy in the context of EU accession.

JEL classification: F41, F47

Keywords: fundamental real exchange rate; modeling; pre-EU-accession countries

DOI:

RePEc: n/a

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