Mikroekonomické základy mzdové inflace v České republice

We investigate whether microfoundations might increase the predictive power of macroeconomic models of wage inflation. Results indicate that the Phillips curve delivers more accurate predictions of aggregated wage inflation in districts of prevalently low unemployment. The identification of specific districts is based on our estimates of the unemployment elasticity of wages at the regional level. Real wages adjust to statistical employment changes in districts of low unemployment, low employment share in public sector, and for the short-term unemployed. On the other hand, the welfare system might represent a floor preventing downward wage adjustments in districts of high unemployment and for the long-term unemployed. Although not robust, the results indicate that the regional Phillips curve might exist so that policy implications derived from the aggregated Phillips curve are valid.