K příčinám měnových krizí – empirie a teorie

The article summarizes recognized empirical knowledge about the causes of currency crises, making use of several extensive empirical studies carried out in the late 1990s, and examines select theoretical models of such causation. The results are divided into three levels of causes: general risk conditions, fundamental causes, and immediate triggers. There are two types of theoretical models: one derived from the fundamental causes of crises and one based on self-fulfilling expectations of devaluation. The concept of the eclectic form of the causes of crises prevails in the literature over the idea of „pure“ self-fulfilling expectations. Clustering of crises are explained either by their common causes or by contagion from business and/or financial channels.