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Volume 55, Issue 7 -8


Is the CNB Predictable? (in English)

Kotlán, Viktor; Navrátil, David

Year: 2005   Volume: 55   Issue: 7 -8   Pages: 333-343

Abstract: This paper asks to what extent were the last one hundred policy decisions taken by the Czech National Bank (CNB) considered predictable by the market. The results are threefold. First, CNB policy decisions can be considered as predictable on average. Second, policy predictability followed no clear trend. Third, the analysis shows that it was more difficult for the market to predict policy outcomes regarding CNB Board meetings where interest rate were changed compared with meetings where repo rate were not changed.

JEL classification: E43, E52

Keywords: monetary policy; determination of interest rates; term structure of interest rates


RePEc: http://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v55y2005i7-8p333-343.html

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